The business environment enters the week of September 13–19, 2026, with investors, businesses and policymakers facing a busy economic calendar dominated by the launch of Dangote Petroleum Refinery’s landmark initial public offering (IPO), the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision, developments in global oil markets and continued attention to Nigeria’s inflation and foreign-exchange outlook.

For Nigeria, the week is expected to bring heightened activity in the capital market as the Dangote refinery IPO opens to investors on Monday, September 14. Globally, attention will shift to the Federal Reserve, which is scheduled to hold its September 15–16 policy meeting, while oil markets remain sensitive to geopolitical developments and OPEC+ production decisions.

Dangote refinery IPO takes centre stage

The biggest corporate event on Nigeria’s business calendar this week is the opening of the public offer for Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals.

The offer is scheduled to run from September 14 to October 13, with the company seeking to raise about ₦2.15 trillion ($1.63 billion) through the sale of 4.1 billion shares priced at ₦525 each. The planned offering has been described as Africa’s largest IPO.

The IPO will put the Nigerian capital market under an intense spotlight as retail and institutional investors assess the refinery’s valuation, profitability, growth prospects and exposure to global oil-market conditions.

The refinery, which began operations in 2024, reported a $1.82 billion profit in the first half of 2026, compared with a $476 million loss in the same period of 2025. The company plans to use the proceeds from the offer to support a major expansion that would increase its refining capacity from about 700,000 barrels per day to 1.4 million barrels per day by 2029.

The opening of the offer is therefore expected to generate substantial discussion among investors about the future of Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector and the country’s capital market.

Investors to watch demand for Dangote shares

The scale of the Dangote IPO means that investor demand will be one of the key issues to watch during the week.

The offer is targeting retail investors alongside institutional investors, with the company seeking broad participation. The transaction is also expected to increase attention on Nigeria’s stock market and could influence investor sentiment toward other large Nigerian companies.

However, investors are likely to scrutinise the company’s valuation, future capital requirements, crude supply arrangements and the sustainability of its recent profitability before committing funds.

Dangote Refinery has already secured significant crude supplies for October. Reuters reported that the refinery had purchased at least 16 million barrels of crude for October delivery, equivalent to about 520,000 barrels per day and a substantial portion of its installed capacity.

Oil prices remain a major risk factor

Global oil markets will remain important to Nigeria’s business outlook during the week.

OPEC+ members Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman agreed earlier this month to maintain their September 2026 required production levels for October. The group said it would continue to monitor market conditions and meet monthly.

For Nigeria, movements in crude prices have direct implications for government revenue, foreign-exchange supply, the naira and the broader fiscal position.

The situation is particularly important because geopolitical disruptions have affected global refining and crude supply. Dangote Refinery’s management has warned that fuel-supply tightness could persist beyond the current conflict in the Middle East, while the refinery has benefited from disruptions affecting international refining capacity.

Businesses should therefore continue to monitor international crude prices, shipping costs and refined-product prices, particularly companies with significant energy and transportation costs.

Federal Reserve decision could move global markets

The US Federal Reserve will hold its two-day Federal Open Market Committee meeting on September 15 and 16, making it one of the most important global economic events of the week.

The Fed’s calendar confirms that the meeting will conclude on September 16 with a policy announcement and press conference.

The decision will be closely watched by global investors because changes in US interest-rate expectations can influence the dollar, emerging-market currencies, international bond yields and capital flows.

For Nigeria and other emerging markets, a more accommodative US monetary-policy outlook could improve investor appetite for higher-yielding emerging-market assets. Conversely, a more hawkish signal from the Fed could strengthen the dollar and put pressure on emerging-market currencies and financial markets.

Nigeria’s inflation outlook remains important

Inflation will remain a central issue for Nigerian businesses and households as the economy moves deeper into the second half of 2026.

The National Bureau of Statistics’ current headline inflation series shows inflation at 15.43 per cent under the rebased Consumer Price Index, with core inflation at 14.97 per cent.

The lower inflation rate compared with the much higher levels seen under the previous CPI series represents an improvement in the pace of price increases, but businesses will continue to face challenges from operating costs, financing expenses, exchange-rate movements and consumer purchasing power.

Companies in manufacturing, retail, transportation and food production are likely to remain particularly sensitive to changes in energy, logistics and input costs.

CBN policy remains in focus

The Central Bank of Nigeria’s monetary-policy stance will also remain a major consideration for businesses and investors.

At its July 2026 meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee retained the Monetary Policy Rate at 26.5 per cent, while keeping the Cash Reserve Requirement for deposit money banks at 45 per cent.

Although no Nigerian MPC decision is scheduled for this particular week based on the currently published CBN schedule, investors will continue to assess whether falling inflation and improving macroeconomic conditions could eventually create room for further monetary easing.

For businesses, the key issue is the cost and availability of credit. High interest rates continue to make borrowing expensive, while any eventual reduction in monetary-policy rates could gradually improve financing conditions for businesses and investors.

Naira and foreign exchange remain under watch

The foreign-exchange market will remain another important area of attention.

The direction of the US dollar following the Federal Reserve’s decision, alongside crude-oil prices and Nigeria’s domestic dollar supply, could influence the naira during the week.

A stable or stronger naira would provide some relief for businesses that rely heavily on imported machinery, raw materials and other inputs. Conversely, renewed currency pressure could increase operating costs and complicate pricing decisions.

Businesses with significant foreign-exchange exposure are therefore likely to remain cautious about commitments that require substantial dollar funding.

Nigerian equities could see increased activity

Trading on the Nigerian Exchange is also expected to attract increased attention as investors position themselves around the Dangote IPO and broader economic developments.

The exchange’s September compliance calendar shows routine market obligations continuing during the week, including net liquid capital reporting for trading members.

The Dangote offering could increase overall investor participation and liquidity in Nigeria’s capital market, although its immediate effect on existing listed companies will depend largely on how investors allocate funds between the new offer and stocks already trading on the exchange.

Global markets face another important European signal

Europe will also remain on investors’ radar after the European Central Bank raised its three key interest rates by 25 basis points on September 10.

The ECB said the move reflected inflationary pressures linked partly to the Middle East conflict and projected headline inflation of 3.0 per cent for 2026.

ECB officials are scheduled to make several public appearances during the week, including President Christine Lagarde, whose comments will be closely watched for indications about the future direction of European monetary policy.

The combination of US and European monetary-policy developments could create volatility across global bond, currency and equity markets.

What businesses should watch this week

For Nigerian businesses, the week ahead is likely to revolve around five major themes: the Dangote Refinery IPO, oil prices, the naira, interest rates and inflation.

Manufacturers and other energy-intensive businesses will be watching fuel and electricity costs, while import-dependent companies will be paying close attention to exchange-rate movements.

Investors, meanwhile, will have to balance the opportunities presented by Nigeria’s improving macroeconomic environment against the risks posed by global geopolitical tensions, high financing costs and commodity-market volatility.

The Dangote IPO is likely to dominate Nigeria’s corporate and investment news this week, but its significance extends beyond one company. The size of the offering could test the depth of Nigeria’s capital market, attract new retail investors and provide an important indicator of domestic and international confidence in the country’s private-sector growth story.

Overall, the week of September 13–19 is expected to be one of heightened market activity. While Nigeria’s improving inflation trend and expanding refining capacity provide reasons for optimism, businesses and investors will continue to operate in an environment where global interest rates, oil prices, geopolitical risks and currency movements can quickly change market conditions.