As opposition governors and lawmakers flood into the APC in unprecedented numbers, Nigeria’s political landscape is being redrawn, and questions about democracy’s future are growing loud

The pace at which Nigeria’s political map is being repainted in APC green is without precedent in the country’s post-military democratic era. In the space of barely two years, the ruling All Progressives Congress has transformed from a party that won a contested presidential election into a near-monopoly force commanding governorships across the country.

As of March 9, 2026, the APC controls 31 of Nigeria’s 36 state governorships, leaving the PDP with just two, and a single state each under the Accord, APGA, and Labour parties. It is a political consolidation that has no parallel in Nigeria’s Fourth Republic.

The political migration began in earnest following President Bola Tinubu’s inauguration in May 2023 and accelerated dramatically through 2025 and into 2026. Among the governors who defected in 2025 were Delta State Governor Sheriff Oborevwori, Rivers State Governor Siminalayi Fubara, Akwa Ibom’s Umo Eno, Enugu’s Peter Mbah, and Bayelsa’s Douye Diri all on the platform of the PDP.

The wave continued into 2026. On January 29, Kano State Governor Abba Yusuf decamped from the New Nigeria People’s Party to the APC, followed by Taraba State Governor Agbu Kefas, who formally defected from the PDP to the APC at a ceremony in Jalingo attended by Vice President Kashim Shettima and Senate President Godswill Akpabio.

The defection trend extended well beyond governors. Multiple lawmakers have decamped to the APC between 2025 and 2026, with the latest occurring as recently as March 9, 2026.

The motivations behind the exits are largely pragmatic. Sources indicate that part of the bait being used by the ruling party to lure opposition governors is the guarantee of party tickets and support ahead of the 2027 general elections. The governors, sources say, are burdened by the weakened state of their respective parties and the near-absence of strong figures to defend their interests.

Professor Hassan Saliu, President of the Nigerian Political Science Association, cautioned against placing all blame at Tinubu’s door. He argued that the PDP’s internal problems predate Tinubu’s presidency, pointing to the party’s divisions during the 2022–2023 elections cycle as evidence that the opposition’s collapse is partly self-inflicted.

The scale of the realignment has ignited fierce public debate. Stakeholders are sharply divided on whether Nigeria is drifting toward a one-party state. The National Leader of the Coalition of Northern Groups, Jamilu Aliyu Charanchi, described the mass defections as a dangerous assault on Nigeria’s democracy, arguing that what is unfolding is not ideology or conviction but raw political opportunism driven by fear, self-interest, and the scramble for power.

An Ekiti-based public affairs analyst, Lanre Ogunsuyi, was equally blunt. He warned that Nigeria appears to be drifting toward the precipice of a one-party state, and that history offers sobering lessons: where political plurality withers, debate suffocates, choices for the electorate narrow, and power calcifies in the hands of the few.

From the opposition camp, chieftains of the Coalition of Opposition Politicians, led by former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, have emphasised the risk of an implosion within the APC and warned against Nigeria becoming a one-party state.

Beyond 2027, a more explosive question is now circulating on Nigerian streets and social media: is Tinubu positioning for a third term? Popular content creator VeryDarkMan raised the alarm in a widely circulated video, alleging that Tinubu is not merely preparing for the 2027 election but for a possible 2030 bid as well, pointing to the APC’s dominance in states and the National Assembly as enabling conditions for such an ambition.

The speculation has been fuelled by loyalists making public declarations. Lagos Speaker Mudashiru Obasa made remarks urging Tinubu to continue beyond 2027, raising uncomfortable questions about whether such calls are routine political endorsement or part of a broader attempt to test public tolerance for tenure elongation.

Constitutional experts have been unequivocal in response. Nigeria’s 1999 Constitution clearly stipulates a maximum of two four-year terms for any president, a provision designed to prevent concentration of power and ensure leadership renewal. Any constitutional amendment to alter this would require a two-thirds majority in both the Senate and the House of Representatives, followed by ratification by at least two-thirds of the 36 state Houses of Assembly a bar that, while theoretically reachable with APC’s current numbers, would face fierce resistance.

Nigeria has been here before. Resistance to former President Obasanjo’s third-term bid was swift and decisive: legislators, civil society organisations, the media, and the general public rallied against the proposal, and the National Assembly ultimately rejected the constitutional amendment.

For a political figure of such evident ambition, President Tinubu has maintained a puzzling public distance. Observers note that despite the storms surrounding his administration, Tinubu is not behaving like a president on the defensive. Governors and lawmakers are decamping to his party, yet the president himself has remained remarkably distant from direct engagement with the Nigerian public through the media.

Analysts argue this strategic silence is itself a statement the quiet confidence of a political operator who believes his destiny remains secure, even as his government’s economic reforms continue to generate public anxiety.

Many in the opposition camp are banking on an implosion within the APC after the political parties’ primaries, which the Independent National Electoral Commission has fixed between April and May 2026. Former Kano Governor Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, whose son-in-law Abba Yusuf defected to the APC, predicted disputes and divisions emerging from the primaries that could fracture the ruling party.

However, those predictions face the cold reality of numbers. With the APC controlling 31 states compared to the opposition’s five, the dynamics ahead of the 2027 general election remain heavily skewed in the ruling party’s favour.

Nigeria’s current political trajectory raises legitimate questions about the health of its democracy. The evidence of orchestrated consolidation is difficult to dismiss the sheer scale of defections, the weakening of opposition structures, the APC’s near-total dominance of state governments, and the whispers of tenure elongation all warrant serious scrutiny.

What is equally clear, however, is that there is no confirmed plot for a third term or constitutional manipulation. What exists are political conditions that make such a scenario theoretically feasible and a Nigerian public with a well-documented historical reflex to resist it.

The 2027 election will be the real test of whether the defection wave translates into democratic consolidation or democratic erosion. For now, the line between the two remains uncomfortably thin.