Nigeria recorded the highest increase in petrol prices among major African economies during the first half of 2026, with pump prices rising by 39.5 percent, according to a new report by the African Energy Chamber (AEC).
The report attributed the sharp increase largely to disruptions in the global oil market triggered by the recent conflict between the United States and Iran, which drove up international crude oil prices and increased the cost of refined petroleum products across several countries.
According to the AEC’s State of African Energy 2026 Outlook report, Nigeria experienced the steepest petrol price surge on the continent despite ongoing efforts to expand domestic refining capacity through facilities such as the Dangote Refinery and the rehabilitation of state-owned refineries.
The report noted that heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly concerns over the security of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, pushed global energy prices higher, with the effects quickly filtering into African fuel markets.
Nigeria’s petrol prices increased by 39.5 per cent during the six-month period, outpacing other African oil-producing countries. Analysts said the rise reflected the country’s continued exposure to international market dynamics following the deregulation of the downstream petroleum sector, which has linked domestic pump prices more closely to global crude oil prices and foreign exchange movements.
Despite the price increase, the report observed that Nigeria’s refining capacity has improved significantly with increased output from the Dangote Refinery and the gradual return of government-owned refineries to operation. However, these gains have yet to fully shield consumers from global price shocks.
The AEC noted that countries with greater fuel subsidies or stronger domestic refining and distribution systems generally experienced less pronounced increases in pump prices during the period.
Energy analysts said the development underscores the need for Nigeria to further strengthen local refining, improve crude supply to domestic refineries and enhance energy security to reduce dependence on imported petroleum products and mitigate the impact of future global disruptions.
The report also highlighted the broader economic implications of higher fuel prices, warning that sustained increases could drive transportation costs, inflation and the prices of goods and services, placing additional pressure on households and businesses.
While global oil prices have shown signs of stabilising following the easing of immediate tensions in the Middle East, experts cautioned that continued geopolitical uncertainty could keep energy markets volatile in the months ahead.
