As Nigeria moves towards the 2027 general elections, two issues are emerging as particularly important to voters: the worsening cost of living and persistent insecurity.
The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has scheduled the presidential and National Assembly elections for January 16, 2027, followed by governorship and state House of Assembly elections on February 6.
With political campaigns gathering momentum, the election is increasingly shaping up as a referendum on how Nigerians assess the government’s handling of the economy and security.
Nigeria’s economic reforms have produced some positive indicators, including improved investor confidence and capital inflows, but many households continue to struggle with high food, transport, energy and housing costs.
A recent Reuters report found that widespread economic hardship remains a major source of public dissatisfaction, with many Nigerians yet to feel the benefits of improved macroeconomic indicators. The report also noted that inflation and high interest rates continue to constrain household purchasing power.
The economic pressure could therefore become an important factor when voters assess the performance of President Bola Tinubu’s administration.
Recent polling and voter-sentiment research also point to the importance of economic conditions. A BusinessDay 2027 Election Insights poll published in March identified security and the cost of living among the leading issues shaping voters’ assessments of Tinubu and the ruling All Progressives Congress.
Security presents an equally serious challenge.
Kidnapping, banditry, terrorism and communal violence continue to affect communities in different parts of the country. A recent SBM Intelligence report cited by Reuters recorded 7,825 kidnapping victims between July 2025 and June 2026, representing a 66 per cent increase from the previous year. At least 1,142 people were killed during the period, while approximately ₦7.78 billion was reportedly paid in ransom.
The scale of the kidnapping crisis has implications beyond individual victims. Persistent insecurity can disrupt farming, education, transportation and local commerce while also undermining public confidence in the government’s ability to protect citizens.
The International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (International IDEA) has similarly warned that insecurity could affect voter participation in 2027, particularly in areas where violence or displacement makes it difficult for citizens to reach polling units safely.
The answer may not be the same for every voter.
For a farmer whose community is threatened by banditry, security may be the overriding issue. For an urban worker struggling to pay rent and buy food, the economy may carry greater weight.
For millions of Nigerians, however, the two issues are closely connected.
Insecurity can increase the cost of food by restricting access to farms and disrupting supply chains. Rising living costs can, in turn, deepen economic vulnerability and create conditions that make communities more susceptible to criminal recruitment.
This means political parties may find it difficult to campaign on security or the economy as completely separate issues.
Recent reporting suggests that dissatisfaction extends beyond individual policies.
Reuters reported in August that nearly 80 per cent of Nigerians surveyed believed the country was moving in the wrong direction, with economic hardship and insecurity among the major sources of concern.
At the same time, the political opposition is attempting to convert public frustration into an electoral challenge to the ruling APC.
The effectiveness of that strategy will depend partly on whether opposition parties can present credible alternatives on security, employment, food prices, energy costs and household incomes rather than simply criticising the government’s record.
The 2027 campaign is likely to produce familiar political promises, but voters may increasingly demand measurable plans.
On the economy, that could mean questions about how candidates intend to reduce the cost of food and transportation, increase household incomes, create jobs and make energy more affordable.
On security, voters may demand specific strategies for tackling kidnapping, terrorism and banditry, as well as clearer plans for protecting rural communities and reopening affected schools and economic corridors.
The credibility of those proposals could matter as much as the promises themselves.
Nigeria’s 2027 election will ultimately be decided by voters across thousands of communities, each facing different challenges.
For some, the ballot may be a judgment on whether the government’s economic reforms have improved their lives. For others, it may be a verdict on whether they feel safer than they did before.
The two concerns could therefore compete for attention, but they may also reinforce each other.
If households remain unable to afford basic necessities while insecurity continues to threaten lives and livelihoods, both issues could become powerful drivers of voter dissatisfaction.
The question ahead of 2027 may therefore not simply be whether Nigerians will vote for change or continuity, but whether the candidates can convince voters that they have credible answers to the two problems affecting everyday life most directly.
