Nigeria’s petrol supply landscape shifted further toward imports in July 2026, as domestic refining output declined sharply and marketers moved to bridge the resulting gap, according to the latest data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA).
Nigeria’s daily petrol (PMS) supply dropped by 10 per cent in July, falling from 50.6 million litres in June to 45.5 million litres, according to the regulator’s latest fact sheet. The decline was driven primarily by weaker domestic production, as the report showed that domestic petrol receipts fell by 21 per cent month-on-month, forcing a 9 per cent rise in imports to bridge the gap.
Notably, the drop in supply came even as overall demand cooled. Petrol consumption declined sharply, dropping 25 per cent to 35.7 million litres per day. Despite the tighter supply, the NMDPRA reported that national petrol stock sufficiency improved to 22.4 days, up 14 per cent from June though this remains short of the regulator’s stated 30-day minimum threshold.
July’s figures extend a pattern of sharp month-to-month swings in Nigeria’s fuel supply mix that has persisted through 2026. The previous month had already seen a much steeper disruption: petrol imports surged by 207 per cent in June 2026, reversing earlier gains recorded in domestic refining, as local supply declined sharply.
According to the NMDPRA’s data for the first half of the year, petrol imports rose from an average of 5.9 million litres per day in May to 18.1 million litres per day in June, accounting for 35.8 per cent of the country’s total daily petrol supply, while domestic supply fell by 21.7 per cent, dropping from 41.5 million litres per day in May to 32.5 million litres per day in June.
That June downturn was linked directly to reduced output at Nigeria’s largest refinery. Reports at the time noted that petrol production at the Dangote Refinery dropped by 22 percent, from 41.5 million litres per day in May to 32.5 million litres per day in June.
Even so, local refining had been the dominant source of supply for much of the year. Between February and May, domestic refineries supplied more than 85 per cent of Nigeria’s petrol needs, reducing dependence on imports, with only January and June recording the highest reliance on imports, at 38.2 per cent and 35.8 per cent of total supply respectively.
The renewed reliance on imports comes at a time when the cost of bringing in refined products from abroad has been climbing. Industry analysis from late July found that imported diesel was landing at nearly 22 percent above its 30-day average within a single reporting cycle, a figure with substantial consequences for Nigerian transport, logistics, manufacturing and power generation, while aviation fuel was trading 13.7 percent above its rolling average, with direct implications for airline operating costs and domestic airfares. The same analysis noted that Dangote held only a marginal N8-per-litre advantage over imported petrol at the gantry level as of late July, a gap narrow enough to reverse with modest shifts in crude prices or exchange rates.
The July figures underscore the fragility of Nigeria’s push toward fuel self-sufficiency, more than a year after the Dangote Refinery began full operations. Analysts have repeatedly flagged that feedstock shortages rather than lack of installed refining capacity have been a recurring cause of output shortfalls. Separate reporting on refinery supply chains found that between October 2025 and March 2026, the Dangote facility received only 29.21 million barrels of crude against a requirement of 108.74 million barrels, a supply performance of just 26.9 percent, forcing continued reliance on imported crude and, by extension, exposing the country to swings in foreign exchange costs.
For consumers and businesses, the swings between import dependence and domestic supply continue to translate into price volatility and uncertainty over fuel availability, even as the NMDPRA’s stock sufficiency figures suggest the immediate supply crunch has eased slightly compared to June.
